Is that how the blog started – a passion to share the fine print?
When I was living in Washington, D.C., in 2002, a lot of people I knew were starting political blogs, but I didn’t feel like I had anything unique to say that no one else in the space was saying. I thought, what are people asking me about? So I just started writing travel tips. One weekend in May, I set up a free account on Blogspot.com and started writing, you know, 30 people read it, then 500, then 1,000. Last month, in June, the blog traffic dipped a little to 5.5 million visitors, but by March it was up to 7.5 million.
Usually, let’s talk numbers. Every points system feels a little different than the last. It’s hard to know what, say, 100,000 miles is worth when it comes to any loyalty program. What’s your method?
So, I have a rough idea of the value of each currency. I value a Marriott point at, say, 65 basis points, and a Hilton point at around 40 or 45, which is about where I value an IHG point, whereas I value a Hyatt point at 1.4 cents, which is about what I value an American and a United mile. I value a Delta mile at about a penny, a Virgin mile at about nine-tenths.
How do you use this metric as a rule of thumb for how you make the most of your miles?
You want to think of the value of miles as a private currency. There is no central bank, and the price level will be set on it. The simplest model for this is the same analysis you would do for inflation for government-issued currency. Take the simple monetarist formula, MV equals PQ. The amount of money in an economy, or the rate at which it is spent, is going to be equal to the sum of Q, the quantity, the amount of goods in the economy, and P, the price level, right?
Yes, that’s right. I knew it.
The price is affected by the amount of seats on the plane. Airlines have become pretty good at what they call capacity discipline and don’t fly flights that don’t sell. They print far more miles than are redeemed in a given year, and there are far more ways to earn miles.
How can a beginner start?
Don’t leave miles on the table. Sign up for programs. Track your points. I use Rewards Isle but keep track of your accounts however you want to do it. Take your account number when you buy something online and go through a shopping portal. Maximize it by comparing portals, whether it’s something like Savewise or Cashback Monitor.
You sound like someone who, like any good score hacker, knows their way around Microsoft Excel.
I don’t really use spreadsheets. I have a really good memory, and I’ve been paying attention to these things for almost 30 years.
